A South Texas College of Law assistant professor who developed a Supreme Court fantasy league says he and two colleagues have developed a computer model that can predict decisions of the court and individual justices.
Law professor Josh Blackman, writing at his blog, says his computer model, applied to cases since 1953, correctly identifies 69.7 percent of the court’s affirmances and reversals, as well as 70.9 percent of the votes of individual justices. A paper at SSRN has details.
The predictions are based on data that was available before the court’s decision. Ninety variables are used, including the party of the appointing president, the court era in which the decision is written, the court and justice’s ideological direction, and the agreement level of the court. The model compares predictions for each case to what actually happened, learning which variables work and which don’t.
Law prof claims computer model predicts SCOTUS decisions with 70% accuracy